Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
25.6%/yr
±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
27.2%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockServices (App Store, iCloud, Apple Pay) at 14% growth compound = recurring high-margin revenue now ~25% of total. AI features (Apple Intelligence) arriving in iPhones = potential upgrade cycle upgrade cycle booster. Balance sheet fortress: $40B+ net cash.
iPhone is 55% of revenue and is a commodity replacement cycle — growth ceiling is structural. Valuation at 27x forward EPS prices in perfection for a low-growth hardware company. China exposure (20% revenue) is a tariff/geopolitical wildcard. AI differentiation unclear vs Google/Samsung.
China revenue -30%+ from tariffs/ban, App Store regulatory dismantling, AI differentiation fails to drive upgrade supercycle
Updated Mar 12
FY2025: .2B revenue (+6%), net income B (+19.5% — but .7B tax artifact from State Aid reversal inflates headline). Normalized NI growth ~7-8%. Services .2B (+14%) at 75.4% gross margin is the thesis e...
Blowout Q1: $143.8B revenue (+16%), $42.1B net income (+16%), 48.2% GM (+130bps). iPhone +23% on Pro mix. Greater China +38% — the single most important datapoint, reversing prior weakness thesis. R&D...
Blowout Q1: $143.8B revenue (+16%), $42.1B net income (+16%), 48.2% GM (+130bps). iPhone +23% on Pro mix. Greater China +38% — massive reversal. Services $30B (+14%) at 76.5% margin. R&D surged +32% t...
FY2025: 416.2B revenue (+6%), EPS 7.46 (+23%). Services 109.2B (+14%) at 75.4% gross margin drives total GM expansion to 46.9%. iPhone 209.6B (+4%, Pro-mix driven). China 64.4B (-4%) -- 2nd consecutiv...
Record Q1: .8B revenue (+16%), .1B net income (+16%), 48.2% gross margin (+130bps). iPhone +23% driven by Pro mix. Greater China +38% (massive reversal). Services +14% at 76.5% gross margin. R&D +32% ...