ABNB

Airbnb, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$133.31

-$0.93 (-0.70%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$145.68

Upside+9.28%

Signal0

Market Cap$77.3B

52W Range$104.15–$143.88

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$91.45

Current Price$122.87

Upside / Down-25.6%

P(Undervalued)1.7%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)83.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

1.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.2%/yr

±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-6.4%/yr

±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide.

Trailing P/E31.0x

Forward P/E21.6x

P/S6.1x

EPS (TTM)$4.04

Analyst Target$145.68

Analyst Upside9.3%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

ABNB FY2025: Accelerated Expansion, Margin Resilience, Macro Headwinds

ABNB faces growth deceleration (guidance warnings), major regulatory/tax headwinds (IRS .3B dispute, EU/Spain/Italy restrictions), but maintains strong brand and profitable model. Tech stack refresh s...