Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
39.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
9.2%/yr
±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-0.2%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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FY2025 revenue +11% to .77B, net income +28% to .13B, FCF .03B (+25%). Total Adobe ARR .20B (+11.5%). Stock at 52-week lows near 10x forward earnings. AI platform (Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, GenSt...