Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
31.4%/yr
±4.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
24.1%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Analog Devices, Inc.
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Exceptional Q1: revenue +30% YoY to $3.16B, gross margin +570 bps to 64.7%, net income doubled to $831M. Communications +63% on AI/datacenter wireline. Industrial +38%. Automotive +8% (soft). $1.37B O...