ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Consumer DefensiveFarm ProductsNASDAQ

$79.78

+$2.75 (3.45%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$64.91

Upside-18.64%

Signal0

Market Cap$33.6B

52W Range$40.98–$74.19

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$245.58

Current Price$72.23

Upside / Down+240.0%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-12.4%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

ADM FY2025: Margin Compression & Strategic Pivot

Revenue -6% to .3B. Gross margin compression in Ag Services & Oilseeds (77% of sales) due to global supply glut, trade uncertainty, biofuel policy deferral. Carbohydrate Solutions weighed by lower eth...