ADP

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$221.84

+$1.77 (0.80%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$264.40

Upside+19.18%

Signal0

Market Cap$82.7B

52W Range$197.08–$329.93

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$200.45

Current Price$201.25

Upside / Down-0.4%

P(Undervalued)49.3%

P(20%+ Up)15.9%

P(15%+ Down)21.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

49.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.1%/yr

±4.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.9%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Trailing P/E19.7x

Forward P/E17.1x

P/S3.9x

EPS (TTM)$10.40

Analyst Target$264.40

Analyst Upside19.2%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

ADP Q2 FY2026: Resilient Growth with PEO Margin Pressure

Solid execution on Next Gen rollout and client retention, but PEO Services margin compression and moderating employment growth are warning signs. Fair value appears $260-270 near-term, higher $280-300...