No conviction changes recorded
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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
31.4%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
17.8%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockMarket-leading CAD/PLM/BIM SaaS >90% recurring. AI tools (Forma, Construction IQ) accelerating. FCF inflection underway.
Macro slowdown hits AEC/construction; premium ~40x FCF; DOGE cuts public infra.
NRR < 100%, sustained churn, AI-native entrant disruption
Updated Apr 8
FY26 10-K analysis re-run at current price (essentially at prior entry target). Revenue +18%, FCF +54% to $2.4B, AECO +22%, direct model complete. P/FCF FY27 ~18x at current price — cheap for qualit...
FY26 revenue $7.21B (+18%), FCF $2.41B (+54%). AECO grew 22%, direct revenue hit 63% (vs 39% TD Synnex prior). RPO $8.3B (+20%). FY27 guide conservative at 12-13% growth due to sales optimization fric...
Q3 FY26 10-Q confirms thesis: subscription revenue +19% YoY, AECO +23%, direct channel hit 66% of revenue (from 42% a year ago). RPO of $7.36B. FCF inflection massive. Full FY26 delivered $7.206B reve...
ADSK executes channel transition flawlessly (direct sales now 66%) while maintaining subscription growth >110% NR3. Profitability solid (38% non-GAAP op margin), cash generation strong (.46B CF). Paya...