AEE

Ameren Corporation
UtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricNASDAQ
$107.97
-$1.84 (-1.70%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$117
Upside+8.36%
Signal4.18
Market Cap$31.4B
52W Range$91.77–$113.93
Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:05 AM75conviction-rescore
Mar 7, 2026, 5:09 AM67sec-read
Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Sign in to unlock

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 79% valid
Fair Value$29.62
Current Price$108.72
Upside / Down-72.8%
P(Undervalued)0.6%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)97.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.5%/yr

±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Sign in to unlock
Bull Case

Ameren is one of the cleanest utility stories: 2.2GW of data center agreements in Missouri/Illinois, regulated ROE expansion, and management guiding 6-8% EPS growth through 2028. Data center demand is front-running their IRP.

Bear Case

Above $100 entry target at $109. Rate cases in Illinois can be contentious (ICC has been unpredictable). Higher-for-longer rates compress regulated utility valuations. No near-term catalyst until next rate case or data center announcement.

Thesis Breakers

Illinois ICC rejects rate case, data center customers cancel, Fed hikes materially above 5%

Updated Mar 12

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 7
Conviction: unchanged
FY2025 10-K Deep Read: Data Center Catalyst + Exceptional EPS Growth

AEE FY2025 10-K confirms thesis with conviction-raising data: EPS +21% to $5.35 (exceptional for utility), 2.2 GW data center demand agreements signed Feb 2026, $31.8B 2026-2030 capex plan, dividend r...

sec_10kMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
FY2025 10-K: Rate Recovery & Grid Infrastructure Strength

AEE is a $31B regulated utility with dual-state operations (MO & IL). Recent rate cases supportive. Capital program focused on grid modernization aligns with infrastructure spending macro theme. Predi...