AES

The AES Corporation

UtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedNASDAQ

$14.67

-$0.02 (-0.14%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$15.33

Upside+4.52%

Signal1.81

Market Cap$10.3B

52W Range$9.46–$17.65

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:19 AM6→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 9% valid

Low confidence model

Fair Value$2.59

Current Price$14.00

Upside / Down-81.5%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

25.0%/yr

±9.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

AES Corp renewable energy developer; long-term contracted PPA cash flows; data center power deals.

Bear Case

Utility-scale solar execution risk; interest rate sensitivity to project IRRs; EM currency exposure.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 8

Conviction: unchanged

AES Q3 2025 10-Q Falcon Read: Transition Under Pressure

Falcon deep read: Revenue .1B 9M (67% non-regulated, 33% regulated). Margin compression -250bps (20.3%→17.8%) from non-reg revenue decline, emissions cost surge (M vs M), Chile tariff caps. OCF strong...

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

AES Q3 2025: Operational Stability with Margin Compression and Debt Refinancing

AES Q3 2025 shows stable but compressing business with operational execution intact but margin pressure. Revenue flat, costs rising faster. Refinancing well-positioned. Key risks: Uplight impairment s...