AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Financial ServicesInsurance BrokersNASDAQ

$213.54

+$4.13 (1.94%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$271.37

Upside+27.08%

Signal0

Market Cap$55.7B

52W Range$195–$351.23

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$371.54

Current Price$207.10

Upside / Down+79.4%

P(Undervalued)99.9%

P(20%+ Up)95.5%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

99.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

3.0%/yr

±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

15.4%/yr

±3.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Arthur J.

Trailing P/E37.7x

Forward P/E14.6x

P/S4.3x

EPS (TTM)$5.74

Analyst Target$271.37

Analyst Upside27.1%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

AJG 2025 10-K: Strong Position, Major Integration Risk

AJG is 3rd largest insurance broker globally. Strong niche model (87% brokerage). Recent AssuredPartners acquisition creates integration risk. M&A track record strong but execution is key. Fair valuat...