AKAM

Akamai Technologies, Inc.

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ

$149.54

+$3.37 (2.26%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$110.20

Upside-26.31%

Signal0

Market Cap$13.4B

52W Range$67.51–$121.12

Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:20 AM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$92.67

Current Price$114.50

Upside / Down-19.1%

P(Undervalued)18.8%

P(20%+ Up)5.3%

P(15%+ Down)57.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

18.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

8.3%/yr

±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

11.5%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 8

Conviction: unchanged

AKAM 10-K Deep Read: Security Moat Strong, Cloud Compute Bet Underway, Delivery Structural Decline

FY25 revenue .21B (+5% YoY). Security .24B (+10%), Delivery .26B (-5%), Cloud M (+12%). Cloud Infra Services grew 36% to M. Non-GAAP op margin 30%, EBITDA margin 43%. OCF .52B. .9B cash/securities. .7...

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

AKAM FY2025: Growth Moderating But Security Momentum Strong; Delivery Pressured

AKAM posted FY25 revenue .2B (+5%), with security booming (+10%, 53% of mix), cloud strong (+12%), delivery weak (-5%). Core moat is global edge network and security portfolio; competitive advantage c...