Akamai: DCF P(above)=30.7%, FV=$93 vs current price likely ~$90-100. Modest upside at best, CDN business under secular pressure from cloud providers (AWS CloudFront, Cloudflare). Edge security segment growing but not enough to offset core CDN erosion. Downgrade to 5 (Lean Avoid): insufficient upside and declining core business.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
18.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.3%/yr
±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
11.5%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
FY25 revenue .21B (+5% YoY). Security .24B (+10%), Delivery .26B (-5%), Cloud M (+12%). Cloud Infra Services grew 36% to M. Non-GAAP op margin 30%, EBITDA margin 43%. OCF .52B. .9B cash/securities. .7...
AKAM posted FY25 revenue .2B (+5%), with security booming (+10%, 53% of mix), cloud strong (+12%), delivery weak (-5%). Core moat is global edge network and security portfolio; competitive advantage c...