ALB

Albemarle Corporation

Basic MaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsNASDAQ

$176.42

+$6.77 (3.84%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$188.74

Upside+6.98%

Signal3.49

Market Cap$20.5B

52W Range$49.43–$206

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$26.21

Current Price$179.45

Upside / Down-85.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

33.5%/yr

±4.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

31.0%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Albemarle 2025 10-K: Lithium Market Retreat, Strategic Refocusing

ALB placing majority of lithium capacity into care & maintenance as 85-95% lithium price collapse forces existential restructuring. Divesting refining solutions to improve margins. Still exposed to Ch...