ALGN

Align Technology, Inc.

HealthcareMedical Instruments & SuppliesNASDAQ

$174.95

+$12.78 (7.30%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$201.69

Upside+15.29%

Signal7.64

Market Cap$12.4B

52W Range$122–$208.31

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$91.94

Current Price$166.38

Upside / Down-44.7%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.8%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

25.6%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

ALGN 10-K: Market Leader in Clear Aligners Facing Execution and Macro Headwinds

Market leader in clear aligners with solid 600M TAM but facing macro headwinds, competitive intensity, and execution challenges from consecutive restructuring. Recent innovations (Class II, 3D printin...