ALLE

Allegion plc

IndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesNASDAQ

$130.07

-$0.63 (-0.48%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$175.55

Upside+34.96%

Signal17.48

Market Cap$12.0B

52W Range$116.57–$183.11

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:20 AM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$115.14

Current Price$144.50

Upside / Down-20.3%

P(Undervalued)12.9%

P(20%+ Up)1.9%

P(15%+ Down)62.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

12.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

11.3%/yr

±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

9.4%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Allegion access control/security; recurring service revenue; non-residential construction demand.

Bear Case

Commercial real estate weakness reducing new construction; price/mix normalization.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

ALLE FY2025: Pricing Power Overwhelms Volume Softness; Electronics Growth Intact

ALLE FY2025 shows strong pricing (+3.1%) and margin expansion offsetting volume weakness (+1.0%). Electronics growth positive; tariff recovery working but unsustainable long-term. Residential market s...