DCF P(above)=72.6% with FV=$52, target $53. Packaging company with decent fundamentals — but DCF diverges from current analysis. P(above) supports upgrade from lean-avoid to neutral. Solid defensive business, but no clear edge or near-term catalyst. Neutral.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
77.2% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-0.8%/yr
±6.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
16.4%/yr
±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
AMCR post-Berry integration on track but facing macro headwinds and execution risk. Organic volumes declining 3%, synergies M over 3 years, leverage manageable at 3.2x. Hold at .43; wait for -45 entry...