AMCR

Amcor plc

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$38.82

+$0.32 (0.83%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$52.33

Upside+34.80%

Signal20.88

Market Cap$17.9B

52W Range$37.95–$50.94

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 7:03 PM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$52.57

Current Price$38.62

Upside / Down+36.1%

P(Undervalued)77.2%

P(20%+ Up)62.5%

P(15%+ Down)14.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

77.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-0.8%/yr

±6.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

16.4%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Amcor flexible/rigid packaging; global scale; consumer staples customer stability.

Bear Case

Volume pressure in food/healthcare packaging; raw material cost inflation; ESG recycled content mandates.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

10-qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Berry Integration Underway; Organic Decline & Macro Uncertainty Weigh

AMCR post-Berry integration on track but facing macro headwinds and execution risk. Organic volumes declining 3%, synergies M over 3 years, leverage manageable at 3.2x. Hold at .43; wait for -45 entry...