Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
38.8%/yr
±1.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
52.5%/yr
±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockAMD EPYC server CPU market share gains; MI300X AI accelerator gaining traction; PC recovery.
Nvidia dominance in AI training; Intel Gaudi competition; customer concentration in hyperscalers.
Updated Apr 7
10-K/A correction reveals 31% ASP + 15% unit growth in Client — stronger pricing power than originally reported. DC operating margin 21.7% hit by $440M net MI308 charges; normalized ~24%. OpenAI warra...
FY2025: .6B revenue (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50%. Net cash .3B, OCF .5B. OpenAI 6GW deal validates AI GPU positioning but 160M share warrant creates ~10% ...
FY2025 revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client .6B (+51%). Net cash .3B, OCF .5B. OpenAI 6GW deal structurally validates Instinct platform. DC operating margin only 21.7% vs NVIDIA ~60%+ — ...
At $202, AMD trades at 18.8x forward EPS — cheap for a 34% growth company. AI inflection real. But OpenAI warrant (160M shares @ $0.01) represents ~10% dilution if fully vested, Data Center operating ...
10-K/A correction reveals 31% Client ASP growth (vs 15% unit growth) — strong pricing power. $34.6B revenue (+34%), $16.6B Data Center (+32%), OpenAI 6GW GPU deal binding, MI450 annual cadence confirm...
AMD FY2025 confirms AI inflection with 34% revenue growth and fortress balance sheet. OpenAI 6GW deal validates competitive GPU product. However, valuation compresses risk/reward: 77x P/E implies perf...
FY2025: Revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50% (+1%) despite M MI308 inventory charge. OpenAI 6GW warrant deal validates AI strategy. Risk: margin gap v...
FY2025: Revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50%. Net cash .3B. OpenAI 6GW GPU deal. MI308 export charge M net. Forward PE 18.8x on .75 EPS — cheap for gr...
AMD delivered 34% revenue growth and 94% operating income growth in FY2025, driven by Data Center (+32%) and Client/Gaming (+51%) segments. The OpenAI 6GW partnership and MI350X GPU ramp validate the ...
FY2025: Revenue $34.6B (+34%), Data Center $16.6B (+32%), Client/Gaming $14.6B (+51%), Embedded $3.5B (-3%). Gross margin 50% (+1pp). Net income $4.3B. Cash $10.6B vs debt $3.3B. OpenAI 6GW GPU deal +...
AMD Q4 2025: 10.3B (+34%), DC 5.4B. Q1 2026 guide 9.8B. OpenAI + Meta confirmed as Instinct customers. 44.7% upside to analyst mean 290. Bull: rising AI tide + EPYC CPU gains. Bear: NVIDIA CUDA moat, ...
AMD delivered 34% revenue growth to .6B in FY2025 — a genuine AI infrastructure inflection. Data Center +32% to .6B, Client/Gaming +51% to .6B. Landmark OpenAI deal (6 GW GPU commitment) validates hyp...