No conviction changes recorded
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
3.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.3%/yr
±8.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
40.2%/yr
±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
AI packaging bottleneck is real and AMKR is betting $2.5-3B capex to own it. Revenue $6.7B with Q1 2026 guided +8% sequential. At 0.9x sales and 6.4x earnings, it's the cheapest AI-adjacent growth story in the market. Arizona CHIPS Act facility adds domestic supply chain premium.
Customer concentration is a cliff risk — Apple + Qualcomm are the majority of revenue. TSMC could vertically integrate into packaging, commoditizing AMKR's moat. Massive capex cycle ($3B) under a new CEO with no track record on this scale; if AI capex cools in 2027, they're stuck with sunk infrastructure.
Q1 2026 miss, Arizona delays past H2 2026, TSMC entering packaging directly
Updated Mar 11
Q4 2025: $1.89B revenue (+16% YoY), 16.7% gross margin — strong beat. FY2025: $6.71B (+6%), $374M net income, $1.50 EPS. Net cash: $546M. Q1 2026 guide: $1.60-1.70B, 12.5-13.5% GM (seasonal). 2026 cap...
AMKR tripling capex to $2.5-3B in 2026 to relieve HDFO bottleneck for AI/HPC packaging. Advanced packaging drives >20% segment growth, but Apple/Qualcomm concentration and Arizona ramp are risks. Thes...