Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
33.1%/yr
±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
97.2%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Amazon Q4 2025: $213.4B revenue (+14%), AWS $128.7B run rate, advertising $21.3B (+22% YoY). The $200B 2026 capex commitment signals Jassy believes AWS can re-accelerate against Azure and Google Cloud...
AWS re-accelerated to 20% growth at $128.7B revenue with $45.6B OP income (35.4% margin, slight compression from capex). Total revenue +12% to $716.9B. FCF collapsed from $38.2B to $11.2B as capex sur...