AOS

A. O. Smith Corporation
IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ
$56.72
-$0.45 (-0.79%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$80.40
Upside+41.75%
Signal20.88
Market Cap$8.8B
52W Range$58.83–$81.87
Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:20 AM65conviction-rescore
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$52.33
Current Price$64.42
Upside / Down-18.8%
P(Undervalued)11.8%
P(20%+ Up)0.8%
P(15%+ Down)60.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

11.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.4%/yr

±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

4.0%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 11
Conviction: unchanged
AOS FY2025 10-K Deep Read: Leonard Valve Acquisition Changes the Story

FY2025 confirms NA franchise strength (24.4% margin, +1.4% revenue) and China restructuring effectiveness (margin 8.7% vs 7.0% on -12% revenue). Key new factor: Leonard Valve acquisition (M term loan,...

sec_10kMar 8
Conviction: unchanged
AOS FY2025 10-K Deep Read: Water Heater Leader With China Headwind

AOS stable industrial with 38.8% gross margin, 24.4% NA segment margin. China (-12% local currency) drag continues but restructuring improved ROW margin to 8.7%. FCF M. 2026 guidance +2-5% revenue, EP...

sec_10kMar 4
Conviction: unchanged
AOS FY2025 10-K: Stable revenue, margin expansion, China headwind

FY2025 margins expanded despite flat revenue, driven by pricing and product mix. North America resilient; China distressed. Management taking action on China assessment. Balance sheet strong, cash gen...