APA

APA Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas E&PNASDAQ

$36.43

-$1.81 (-4.98%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$37.25

Upside+2.25%

Signal0.9

Market Cap$13.7B

52W Range$13.58–$45.66

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:05 AM7→4conviction-rescore

Mar 8, 2026, 5:04 AM6→7sec-read

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$22.86

Current Price$44.39

Upside / Down-48.5%

P(Undervalued)0.3%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)96.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

11.4%/yr

±5.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

5.6%/yr

±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Callon synergies on track with visible margin expansion in Permian. Egypt gas agreement ($2.65/MCF floor) secures international cash flow. Oil at $91+ post-Hormuz closure is a direct FCF windfall — APA generates exceptional cash at these levels.

Bear Case

APA has a complex portfolio (Permian + Egypt + Suriname) that makes it a low-multiple E&P vs pure-plays. 30% PUD reserves means capex commitment to grow. Suriname execution remains uncertain 2028+.

Thesis Breakers

Oil drops below $65 sustained, Egypt political instability, Suriname resource estimate impairment

Updated Mar 12

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 8

Conviction: unchanged

APA 2025 10-K: Permian Consolidation Delivering, Egypt Gas Reset Critical

Callon synergies on track (cost reductions, efficiency gains). Egypt Jan-2025 gas agreement (.65/MMBtu floor + incremental pricing) is game-changer—materially improves cash flow. 30% PUD reserves prov...

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

APA 2025 10-K: Permian Consolidation Showing Returns

APA consolidating Permian position post-Callon, demonstrating cost synergies while Egypt gas agreement materially improves margin profile. North Sea exit removes drag. Disciplined capital allocation s...