APP

AppLovin Corporation

Communication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesNASDAQ

$435.77

-$6.70 (-1.54%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$648.57

Upside+48.83%

Signal0

Market Cap$125.9B

52W Range$200.50–$745.61

Next EarningsMay 6

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$140.13

Current Price$381.20

Upside / Down-63.2%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

44.3%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally.

Trailing P/E37.2x

Forward P/E18.4x

P/S23.0x

EPS (TTM)$10.03

Analyst Target$648.57

Analyst Upside48.8%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

APP FY2025 10-K: Axon AI flywheel firing on all cylinders, e-commerce the next chapter

AppLovin delivered exceptional FY2025 results: revenue +70% to .48B, net income +111% to .33B, Adjusted EBITDA +87% to .51B at 82% margins. Pure software economics (89% gross margin) driven by Axon AI...