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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
87.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-1.1%/yr
±4.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
4.3%/yr
±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockConv 8. EV content growth thesis: software-defined vehicles increase $/car substantially. DCF P(above)=83.8%, analyst 39% upside. Spin catalyst (SoP separation) confirmed in 10-K. Cheap at 7.4x forward P/E.
Terrible technicals: tech score -4, below 200dma, MACD -0.13, 5d flat. EV market is slowing globally. Automotive cycle risk real. Caution regime — zero setup here.
EV adoption stalls, SoP spin delayed/cancelled, Detroit OEM demand decline, tariff escalation on autos
Updated Mar 18
Javed Khan, EVP & President of Intelligent Systems (ADAS/autonomy division), resigns March 30 to become CEO of a software/AI company. Leadership loss at the highest-value division is a thesis risk to ...
FY2025 10-K confirms record adj. OI $2,461M (12.1% margin), $20.4B revenue (+3.5%). Versigent (EDS) spin April 1 confirmed with debt priced. Post-spin New Aptiv (ASUX+ECG) targets 18.6% EBITDA vs 12% ...
Versigent spin confirmed April 1 with debt financing priced early March. New Aptiv (ASUX+ECG) FY26 adj EPS guide .70-6.10 at current implies 12x P/E — historically cheap for an industrial tech compan...
10-K confirms FY2025 record results: $20.4B revenue (+3%), $2,461M adj OI (12.1% margin, record), adj EPS $7.82 (+25% yoy). Wind River $648M goodwill impairment non-cash. ASUX segment stalling (flat r...
FY2025 confirms the spin thesis — Versigent EDS separation on track for April 1 (record date March 17). NuAptiv post-spin will show 18.6% adj EBITDA margin vs 12% blended today, a step-change that sho...
FY2025: .4B rev (+3.5%), record adj. OI .461B (12.1% margin), but M Wind River goodwill impairment dragging GAAP to M net income. Versigent spin confirmed April 1 (record Mar 17). NuAptiv post-spin: ....
FY2025 operational excellence (20.4B rev, 15.8% EBITDA) confirms scale moat. EDS spin (Apr 2026) shifts to higher-margin software-first positioning with 18.6% post-spin EBITDA target. Autonomy (L2/L3)...
Aptiv 10-K shows solid global scale but facing cyclical headwinds, separation costs, and execution risks. Wind River impairment (M) flags software strategy challenges. EDS spin-off creates transition ...