ATI

ATI Inc.

IndustrialsMetal FabricationNASDAQ

$175.16

+$16.11 (9.20%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$161.44

Upside-7.83%

Signal0

Market Cap$22.2B

52W Range$41.29–$168.14

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$48.18

Current Price$140.43

Upside / Down-65.7%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

28.2%/yr

±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

37.0%/yr

±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kApr 15

Conviction: unchanged

ATI Inc. FY2025 10-K: Aerospace Supercycle Driving Margin Expansion

FY2025 revenue +5% to $4.59B, adj EBITDA +18% to $859M (18.7% margin, +200bps). A&D at 68% of sales growing 14%; commercial jet engines +21%. HPMC segment EBITDA margin expanded 330bps to 23.6%. Net d...

noteMar 18

Conviction: unchanged

Initial Discovery — 200 DMA Screen

New discovery via 200dma screen. Specialty metals aerospace. Needs research.