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0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
32.8%/yr
±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
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Sign in to unlockAtmos Energy natural gas distribution utility; rate base compounding; Texas population growth.
Natural gas carbon transition risk long-term; regulatory lag; pipeline safety capex.
Updated Apr 7
Q1 FY2026 validates regulatory execution: +122.5M rate approvals, net income +14.5%, interest -37% YoY. Capex 1.033B on track. Two NTSB fatality investigations present tail risk. Valuation 23.9x P/E f...
Q1 FY2026 validates ATO's rate execution thesis (+$122.5M approvals), but valuation is fully extended at 24.1x P/E (fair value $118). Interest expense benefit is temporary (refinancing wave exhausts i...
Rate execution flawless (+$122.5M approvals Q1), interest expense down 37% YoY, capex on track $1.033B/quarter. Thesis intact but now fully priced: 20.9x forward P/E vs historical 18-19x. Waiting for ...
7th read of same Q1 FY2026 10-Q. Thesis confirmed: rate machine humming (+$122.5M approvals), interest expense collapse structural (-37% YoY from locked AOCI gains), $26B capex plan on track. Risk: st...
ATO Q1 FY26: Rate execution validated (+$122.5M approvals), interest expense collapsed 37% YoY, capex ramping with tight recovery mechanisms in place. Consolidated net income +14.5% to $403M, EPS +9.4...
ATO delivered strong Q1 results with revenue up 14.2% and net income up 14.5%, driven by 122.5M in rate approvals and a dramatic 37% collapse in interest expense. The company is executing on its regul...
Q1 FY2026 (Dec 31, 2025): Revenue +14.2% to $1.343B, net income +14.5% to $403.0M, EPS $2.44 diluted. Rate approvals: +$122.5M annual operating income in Q1 alone (formula rate mechanisms +$145.7M, ra...
Q1 FY2026 (Dec 31, 2025): Revenue +14.2% YoY to $1.34B, net income +14.5% to $403M, EPS $2.44 diluted (+9.4%). Rate approvals of $122.5M annual op income in Q1 alone. Capex accelerating to $1.03B in Q...
Q1 FY2026 (Dec 31, 2025): Revenue +14.2% to .34B, net income +14.5% to M. Standout: interest charges DROPPED 37% (M → M) due to locked-in hedge gains. Capex .03B in Q1 alone. Debt/cap 41%. .09B in for...
ATO Q1 FY2026: Strong rate execution (+$122.5M approved increases) and capital spending ramp ($1.0B quarterly) drive 14% revenue growth. Regulated utility model with minimal execution risk. Valuation ...