AVB

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

Real EstateREIT - ResidentialNASDAQ

$182.51

-$1.59 (-0.87%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$194.50

Upside+6.57%

Signal3.29

Market Cap$23.8B

52W Range$160.10–$213.34

Next EarningsApr 27

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$112.00

Current Price$160.81

Upside / Down-30.4%

P(Undervalued)5.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.4%

P(15%+ Down)81.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

5.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

10.9%/yr

±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

5.9%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

AvalonBay Communities coastal apartment REIT; supply peaking in Sun Belt; gateway market premium.

Bear Case

New supply in suburban markets; rent growth normalization post-peak; interest rate sensitivity.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

AVB 2025 10-K: Rental Market Resilience, Rate Cap Risks

AVB trading at ~$115-120. Strong operator in tight rental markets but facing regulatory headwinds (rent control, antitrust), rising debt costs, and sector-wide normalization. Conviction: 5/10 due to m...