Contractual AI infrastructure moat: $45B committed RPO means ~$15B revenue next 12 months is pre-sold. Semiconductor +52% YoY, VMware printing 78% op margins. FCF ~$32B annualized at <10x = free money. AI capex is contracted, not speculative — hyperscalers can't cancel.
AVGO below both MAs, momentum -0.185. If AI capex cycle rolls over or hyperscaler concentration risk materializes (Apple/Meta/Google bring chip design in-house), the RPO doesn't renew. Semis are cyclical — a downturn would hit the 52% growth narrative hard.
RPO renewal rate drops, AI capex cycle ends, hyperscaler in-house custom silicon fully displaces AVGO networking/switching
Updated Mar 20
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