AVY

Avery Dennison Corporation

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$159.07

+$0.17 (0.11%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$210

Upside+32.02%

Signal16.01

Market Cap$13.5B

52W Range$156.23–$199.54

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:21 AM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$113.60

Current Price$167.78

Upside / Down-32.3%

P(Undervalued)9.4%

P(20%+ Up)1.9%

P(15%+ Down)77.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

9.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

8.1%/yr

±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

12.5%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

AVY 2025 10-K: Raw Material Deflation Pressures, Tariff Impact, but Productivity Offsets

AVY: Organic sales flat 2025 despite deflation headwinds, offset by >M restructuring savings. Tariff impact to apparel low-single-digit. Taylor Adhesives acquisition (flooring adhesives, M) expands hi...