Avery Dennison: DCF P(above)=9.0%, FV=$115 vs target $175. DCF clearly signals overvaluation. Labeling/packaging materials company facing cost pressures and volume softness. Prior target $175 is above DCF fair value range. Downgrade to 5 (Lean Avoid): DCF does not support the thesis, insufficient upside.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
9.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.1%/yr
±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.5%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
AVY: Organic sales flat 2025 despite deflation headwinds, offset by >M restructuring savings. Tariff impact to apparel low-single-digit. Taylor Adhesives acquisition (flooring adhesives, M) expands hi...