BALL

Ball Corporation

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$54.67

-$1.63 (-2.98%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$70.31

Upside+28.60%

Signal17.16

Market Cap$16.6B

52W Range$43.51–$68.29

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$49.03

Current Price$59.27

Upside / Down-17.3%

P(Undervalued)27.8%

P(20%+ Up)11.6%

P(15%+ Down)53.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

27.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.7%/yr

±7.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

18.6%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Ball Corporation aluminum packaging; sustainability/lightweighting tailwind; beverage can demand.

Bear Case

Volume softness in beer/soft drinks; aluminum cost pass-through complexity; resin competition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

BALL FY 2025: Volume Growth + Pricing Power Holding; Tariff Risk Emerging

BALL executes well; volume and pricing offset raw cost inflation. Market share solid across regions. Tariff uncertainty and labor cost inflation are near-term risks. Fair value –37/sh; current fairly...