BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$167.43

+$8.13 (4.85%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$231.98

Upside+38.56%

Signal0

Market Cap$138.4B

52W Range$150.62–$233.58

Next EarningsApr 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$3332.74

Current Price$4062.14

Upside / Down-18.0%

P(Undervalued)8.9%

P(20%+ Up)0.1%

P(15%+ Down)60.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

8.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.9%/yr

±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

4.8%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Trailing P/E26.4x

Forward P/E0.6x

P/S5.1x

EPS (TTM)$6.63

Analyst Target$231.98

Analyst Upside38.6%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

BKNG FY2025 10-K: Dominant OTA Executing Well, KAYAK Impairment Signals AI Headwind

Revenue +13.4% to .9B, room nights +8% to 1.24B, gross bookings +12.4% to B. Transformation Program delivering >M in run-rate savings. Merchant mix shift to 70% (from 63%) accelerating. Key red flag: ...