Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
50.2% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
6.1%/yr
±10.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
11.9%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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