Housing downturn real (rev -7.4%, margins -240bps, earnings -60%) but DCF FV $84 ≈ current $87. 46% analyst upside suggests consensus expects cycle recovery. Thesis challenged not broken — upgrading from 4 to 5. Would need housing starts stabilization to go higher.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
56.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-1.9%/yr
±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
13.1%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
BLDR faces cyclical housing demand downturn. FY2025 revenue -7.4%, margins -240bps, earnings -60%. Industry forecasting flat starts for 2026. Well-positioned operator but cyclical headwinds dominating...