BLDR

Builders FirstSource, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentNASDAQ

$76.26

+$2.48 (3.25%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$84

Upside+10.15%

Signal5.08

Market Cap$8.8B

52W Range$76.50–$151.03

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:10 AM4→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$85.44

Current Price$80.43

Upside / Down+6.2%

P(Undervalued)56.9%

P(20%+ Up)34.9%

P(15%+ Down)27.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

56.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.9%/yr

±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

13.1%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

BLDR 2025 10-K: Revenue -7.4%, Margins Compressed 240bps, Housing Demand Weakness Persists

BLDR faces cyclical housing demand downturn. FY2025 revenue -7.4%, margins -240bps, earnings -60%. Industry forecasting flat starts for 2026. Well-positioned operator but cyclical headwinds dominating...