BR

Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesNASDAQ
$161.62
-$8.72 (-5.40%)today
Conviction
6/ 10
Fair Value$245.88
Upside+52.13%
Signal31.28
Market Cap$19.1B
52W Range$156.94–$271.91
Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 15, 2026, 5:07 PM76candidate-reeval

Weekly reeval Mar 15 — REDUCING conviction. BR at .32, significantly below MA50 (.8) and MA200 (.2) — well off highs. fPE 17.2x, analyst target (38% upside). Financial services tech/proxy processing thesis — recurring revenue, sticky clients. But is below MA200 () suggesting institutional selling. Need to understand what caused the breakdown from area. Could be AI disruption risk to proxy/data processing (Citrini-style thesis). Reducing 7→6 pending clarity on breakdown cause. Watch Q3 earnings May 2026.

Mar 13, 2026, 5:08 AM67sec-read

Raising 6→7. Recurring rev +7-8% organic, retention 98%, DLR platform doubling. Guidance raised. At $179 vs $272 high, valuation compressed to ~21x fwd adj EPS — vs historical 28-32x. Digital asset upside is real but speculative. Debt manageable on 100%+ FCF conversion. Entry zone $170-185 is compelling.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$165.05
Current Price$157.42
Upside / Down+4.8%
P(Undervalued)58.6%
P(20%+ Up)25.3%
P(15%+ Down)18.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

58.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

4.2%/yr

±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

8.3%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 20
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Core Business Steady, Postage Margin Pressure Persistent, Valuation Full

Q2 FY2026: Recurring growth 8-9% organic, margins stable but pressured by postage inflation. GTO strong (15.4% margins), ICS pressured (11.1% margins). Digital asset mark-to-market adds $240.8M H1 gai...

sec_10qMar 19
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Steady Growth Offset by Postage Margin Pressure; Digital Assets Add Noise

Broadridge reports 10% revenue growth, but operating margin compressed by postage costs. ICS margin fell 140bps despite 7% organic recurring growth. GTO margin expanded 390bps post-SIS. Core earnings ...

sec_10qMar 16
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Core Growth Slowing, Margins Pressured by Postage, Digital Assets Distraction

Recurring revenue growing 7% organically (9% reported), but ICS margin compression from postage rate increases offset GTO strength. Digital asset holdings (.8M Canton Coins) and Tharimmune warrant inv...

sec_10qMar 16
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Postage Pressure, Digital Asset Upside, Slowing Core Growth

BR shows steady 10% revenue growth with strong cash generation, but core business (ICS) is decelerating to 7% recurring growth while postage inflation pressures margins by 4 points. GTO growth is acqu...

sec_10qMar 15
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Solid Growth Masked by Postage Headwinds & Digital Distortion

BR Q2 FY2026 earnings growth boosted 102% by digital asset gains (~$235M), masking 3–5% underlying operational growth. Recurring revenue growth solid at 9%, but closed sales declined 13% YoY. ICS marg...

sec_10qMar 14
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: GTO Margin Expansion Confirms Thesis, ICS Under Postage Pressure

Q2 FY2026 (ended Dec 31, 2025): Revenue +8% to $1.71B. Recurring revenue +9% organic. GTO segment pre-tax margin expanded to 16.1% (from 11.3%) — key positive. ICS pre-tax margin compressed to 11.1% (...

sec_10qMar 13
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Digital Asset Windfall Masks Margin Pressure

Solid organic growth (6-7% recurring revenue) but ICS margins compressed 140bps by postage inflation. Digital asset gains (Canton Coins) inflating reported earnings by ~M H1 — a distraction masking st...

sec_10qMar 13
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026 10-Q: Raised Guidance, Digital Asset Windfall, Near 52-Week Lows

Q2 FY2026 recurring revenue +9% (8% CC, 7% organic). Adj EPS $1.59 (+2% YoY). FY2026 guidance raised: adj EPS growth 9-12%, recurring revenue higher end of 5-7% CC. GAAP EPS boosted by $187M digital a...

sec_10kMar 11
Conviction: unchanged
BR FY2025 10-K Re-read: Recurring Model Intact, Debt Limits Upside

Falcon re-read confirms: ~.8B revenue, 7% recurring growth. GTO margin 15.4% and expanding. Adj EPS .55 (+11%). Debt ~.5-4B (2.5-3x leverage). 19 consecutive dividend increases. AI products (BondGPT, ...

sec_10qMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
BR Q2 FY2026: Solid recurring growth, event-driven headwind, strong cash generation

BR showing organic momentum in recurring revenue (7-9% growth organic) with strong GTO segment acceleration (15.4% pre-tax margins) but ICS margin compression from postage/distribution inflation. Digi...