Weekly reeval Mar 15 — REDUCING conviction. BR at .32, significantly below MA50 (.8) and MA200 (.2) — well off highs. fPE 17.2x, analyst target (38% upside). Financial services tech/proxy processing thesis — recurring revenue, sticky clients. But is below MA200 () suggesting institutional selling. Need to understand what caused the breakdown from area. Could be AI disruption risk to proxy/data processing (Citrini-style thesis). Reducing 7→6 pending clarity on breakdown cause. Watch Q3 earnings May 2026.
Raising 6→7. Recurring rev +7-8% organic, retention 98%, DLR platform doubling. Guidance raised. At $179 vs $272 high, valuation compressed to ~21x fwd adj EPS — vs historical 28-32x. Digital asset upside is real but speculative. Debt manageable on 100%+ FCF conversion. Entry zone $170-185 is compelling.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
58.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
4.2%/yr
±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
8.3%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Q2 FY2026: Recurring growth 8-9% organic, margins stable but pressured by postage inflation. GTO strong (15.4% margins), ICS pressured (11.1% margins). Digital asset mark-to-market adds $240.8M H1 gai...
Broadridge reports 10% revenue growth, but operating margin compressed by postage costs. ICS margin fell 140bps despite 7% organic recurring growth. GTO margin expanded 390bps post-SIS. Core earnings ...
Recurring revenue growing 7% organically (9% reported), but ICS margin compression from postage rate increases offset GTO strength. Digital asset holdings (.8M Canton Coins) and Tharimmune warrant inv...
BR shows steady 10% revenue growth with strong cash generation, but core business (ICS) is decelerating to 7% recurring growth while postage inflation pressures margins by 4 points. GTO growth is acqu...
BR Q2 FY2026 earnings growth boosted 102% by digital asset gains (~$235M), masking 3–5% underlying operational growth. Recurring revenue growth solid at 9%, but closed sales declined 13% YoY. ICS marg...
Q2 FY2026 (ended Dec 31, 2025): Revenue +8% to $1.71B. Recurring revenue +9% organic. GTO segment pre-tax margin expanded to 16.1% (from 11.3%) — key positive. ICS pre-tax margin compressed to 11.1% (...
Solid organic growth (6-7% recurring revenue) but ICS margins compressed 140bps by postage inflation. Digital asset gains (Canton Coins) inflating reported earnings by ~M H1 — a distraction masking st...
Q2 FY2026 recurring revenue +9% (8% CC, 7% organic). Adj EPS $1.59 (+2% YoY). FY2026 guidance raised: adj EPS growth 9-12%, recurring revenue higher end of 5-7% CC. GAAP EPS boosted by $187M digital a...
Falcon re-read confirms: ~.8B revenue, 7% recurring growth. GTO margin 15.4% and expanding. Adj EPS .55 (+11%). Debt ~.5-4B (2.5-3x leverage). 19 consecutive dividend increases. AI products (BondGPT, ...
BR showing organic momentum in recurring revenue (7-9% growth organic) with strong GTO segment acceleration (15.4% pre-tax margins) but ICS margin compression from postage/distribution inflation. Digi...