Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
36.7%/yr
±2.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
22.3%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Blackstone's 2025 10-K confirms the firm's structural growth thesis is intact despite near-term headwinds. AUM grew to .3T+ across four segments: Credit & Insurance (B), Private Equity (.4B), Real Est...