CAG

Conagra Brands, Inc.

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$13.28

-$0.10 (-0.75%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$19

Upside+43.07%

Signal17.23

Market Cap$7.5B

52W Range$15.04–$26.34

Next EarningsApr 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$40.61

Current Price$15.62

Upside / Down+160.0%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-9.0%/yr

±1.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-3.5%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Conagra Brands consumer staples; frozen meals recovery; pricing held vs private label.

Bear Case

Volume elasticity; Slim Jim/snacking competition; portfolio rationalization execution.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Q2 FY2026 10-Q: Massive Impairments Signal Structural Issues; Consumer Weakness Deepening

CAG Q2 reveals structural deterioration masked by prior optimism. Massive impairments (M) in Refrigerated & Frozen and core brands (Birds Eye) indicate fair value is below book and zero margin for saf...