Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
37.4%/yr
±2.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
43.1%/yr
±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Caterpillar's story has fundamentally changed: AI data center power generation is driving a record B backlog (+71% YoY), with Power Generation now the largest segment. Bull thesis intact but .6B tarif...
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