CAT

Caterpillar Inc.
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryNASDAQ
$875.87
+$10.03 (1.15%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$742.18
Upside-15.26%
Signal0
Market Cap$370.0B
52W Range$268.27–$789.81
Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$91.26
Current Price$695.40
Upside / Down-86.9%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.4%/yr

±2.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

43.1%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Caterpillar Inc.

Trailing P/E38.2x
Forward P/E25.9x
P/S5.0x
EPS (TTM)$18.79
Analyst Target$742.18
Analyst Upside-15.3%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisApr 2
Conviction: unchanged
CAT 2026 Analysis: Yellow Iron Renaissance — AI Data Center Power as the New Growth Engine

Caterpillar's story has fundamentally changed: AI data center power generation is driving a record B backlog (+71% YoY), with Power Generation now the largest segment. Bull thesis intact but .6B tarif...

sec_10kFeb 28
Conviction: unchanged
CAT FY2025 10-K: Transition Year Masks Transformational Backlog Surge

FY2025 revenue +4% YoY to $67.6B but EPS fell 15% ($22.05→$18.81) as operating margin contracted 370bps to 16.5%. The story is the backlog: $51.2B at Dec 31, 2025 vs $30.0B a year prior (+70.7%), larg...