CCL

Carnival Corporation & plc

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$28.06

+$2.02 (7.18%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$34.95

Upside+24.55%

Signal12.28

Market Cap$34.5B

52W Range$16.34–$34.03

Next EarningsJun 24

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$29.08

Current Price$24.19

Upside / Down+20.2%

P(Undervalued)75.4%

P(20%+ Up)50.3%

P(15%+ Down)10.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

75.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

12.8%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

33.5%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Carnival cruise pricing record highs; demand far exceeds supply; international expansion.

Bear Case

Fuel cost exposure; geopolitical event risk to itineraries; discretionary travel recession risk.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

analysisMar 25

Conviction: unchanged

Carnival Corporation (CCL) — Pre-Earnings Analysis (Q1 FY2026)

CCL reports Q1 FY2026 March 27. Consensus EPS $0.18 (+38.5% YoY). Stock down 16.6% YTD, trading 10.7x FY2026 EPS. Beat-and-raise = catalyst. Watch forward booking pacing and fuel cost commentary. Cons...

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

Carnival FY2025: Record Performance Masks Structural Headwinds

CCL delivered exceptional FY2025 results: record 26.6B revenue, 4.5B operating income, 105 percent occupancy, 2.76B net income. Balance sheet strengthened with debt down 10B+ from peak, investment-gra...