CF

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Basic MaterialsAgricultural InputsNASDAQ

$112.35

-$8.62 (-7.68%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$116

Upside+3.25%

Signal2.27

Market Cap$18.3B

52W Range$72.09–$141.96

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:21 AM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$219.22

Current Price$136.45

Upside / Down+60.7%

P(Undervalued)98.8%

P(20%+ Up)90.8%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

98.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-4.3%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-8.2%/yr

±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

CF Industries nitrogen fertilizer; natural gas cost advantage (US gas vs European); farm income strong.

Bear Case

Natural gas price spike exposure; global capacity additions from Middle East; ag demand cyclicality.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 11

Conviction: unchanged

CF FY2025 10-K Re-read: Revenue Rebound + Yazoo City Headwind

Falcon re-read confirms: net sales .08B (+19.3%), gross margin 38.4% (+370bps). Donaldsonville CCS online (M, 2M tons CO2 capture). Blue Point JV .7B total (.5B CF share), 2029 startup. Yazoo City AN ...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

CF Industries Holdings 10-K 2025: Decarbonization Bet & Margin Recovery

CF 2025 10-K shows margin recovery to 38.4% (from 34.7%) driven by ammonia pricing bounce. Core strategic bet on decarbonization: Donaldsonville CCS online, Blue Point ATR ($4.25B total capex) under d...