CF Industries: DCF P(above)=99.9%, FV=$220. Nitrogen fertilizer with massive DCF upside signal. Nitrogen prices have been cyclically low but structural demand from food security + clean energy (blue ammonia for hydrogen) provides a compelling re-rating thesis. Upgrade to 7: DCF strongly supports upside but nitrogen prices are highly volatile and cyclical — need a clear price recovery signal before 8.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
98.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-4.3%/yr
±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-8.2%/yr
±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Falcon re-read confirms: net sales .08B (+19.3%), gross margin 38.4% (+370bps). Donaldsonville CCS online (M, 2M tons CO2 capture). Blue Point JV .7B total (.5B CF share), 2029 startup. Yazoo City AN ...
CF 2025 10-K shows margin recovery to 38.4% (from 34.7%) driven by ammonia pricing bounce. Core strategic bet on decarbonization: Donaldsonville CCS online, Blue Point ATR ($4.25B total capex) under d...