CFG

Citizens Financial Group, Inc.

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$62.26

-$0.52 (-0.83%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$71

Upside+14.04%

Signal8.42

Market Cap$27.3B

52W Range$32.83–$68.79

Next EarningsApr 16

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$58.08

Current Price$57.78

Upside / Down+0.5%

P(Undervalued)50.9%

P(20%+ Up)15.3%

P(15%+ Down)18.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

50.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

2.7%/yr

±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-4.1%/yr

±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Citizens Financial Bank NE regional; NIM recovery; fee income diversification improving.

Bear Case

CRE office exposure; deposit competition; credit normalization in consumer.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

CFG 2025 10-K Analysis: Consumer-heavy bank with mortgage headwinds but stable deposit base

CFG: B asset regional bank with B deposits and strong capital position. 2-segment structure (Consumer/Commercial). Consumer mortgages pressured by rates; Commercial more stable. Key risks: CRE exposur...