CHRW

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

IndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsNASDAQ

$178.65

+$0.52 (0.29%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$192.32

Upside+7.65%

Signal4.59

Market Cap$19.4B

52W Range$84.68–$203.34

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$168.29

Current Price$161.57

Upside / Down+4.2%

P(Undervalued)55.8%

P(20%+ Up)28.7%

P(15%+ Down)25.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

55.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.9%/yr

±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

10.9%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 11

Conviction: unchanged

CHRW FY2025 10-K Re-read: Margin Expansion Through Freight Recession

Falcon re-read confirms: revenue .2B, operating income M (+18.8%), net income M (+26.1%). NAST volume +7.6% vs Cass index -7.6% — clear market share gains. Adj GP ,589M (-1.7%). Lean AI driving real p...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

CHRW FY2025: Margin Expansion via Pricing Power + Cost Discipline, but Revenue Headwinds Persist

Strong operational execution: 490bp adjusted operating margin expansion, net income +26.1%, operating cash flow +79.6%. Revenue headwinds (divestiture, ocean compression, tariffs) largely expected and...