Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
1.4%/yr
±11.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-5.3%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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CI undergoes transformation divesting Medicare business while launching rebate-free PBM model. Regulatory headwinds (2028 PBM compensation reform) offset by operational scale in integrated benefits.