Consumer staples — DCF P(above)=73.8% with FV=$132 vs old target $115. Clorox is a brand compounder with pricing power, but post-cyberattack recovery is mostly priced in. FV $132 suggests mild upside at current prices. Upgrade from 5 to 6: solid company at fair value, no edge.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
85.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-3.7%/yr
±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-1.5%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
CLX 10-Q shows revenue down 10% (ERP transition + lower consumption) with gross margin down 230 bps from cost inflation. EBIT declined 26% in 6M as volume deleverage overwhelmed cost actions. GOJO acq...