CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$31.86

-$0.91 (-2.87%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$44.09

Upside+38.37%

Signal0

Market Cap$43.4B

52W Range$29.75–$58.42

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$13.07

Current Price$30.86

Upside / Down-57.6%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

26.0%/yr

±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

19.6%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.

Trailing P/E28.8x

Forward P/E24.1x

P/S3.6x

EPS (TTM)$1.14

Analyst Target$44.09

Analyst Upside38.4%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

CMG FY2025: Comp sales pressure, margin resilience, growth deceleration

CMG FY2025 10-K: Comparable sales declined 1.7% amid consumer weakness; transaction count down 2.9%. Company defending margins through pricing (+2.1%) and cost control despite food inflation (40bps) a...