CMI

Cummins Inc.

IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ

$646.63

+$7.95 (1.23%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$619.92

Upside-4.13%

Signal0

Market Cap$85.2B

52W Range$262–$617.98

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$303.86

Current Price$523.24

Upside / Down-41.9%

P(Undervalued)0.8%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)93.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

17.2%/yr

±7.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

23.3%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

CMI 2025 10-K: Settlement Impact Fading, Power Systems Emerges

CMI 2025 10-K reveals a company mid-transition. Accelera losses contained via impairment (hydrogen exit smart). Power Systems breakout (31% EBITDA on 18% sales) driven by data center power demand is t...