CNC

Centene Corporation
HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ
$59.60
+$1.89 (3.17%)today
Conviction
3/ 10
Fair Value$43.18
Upside-27.56%
Signal0
Market Cap$18.3B
52W Range$25.08–$66.03
Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$2383.32
Current Price$32.00
Upside / Down+7347.9%
P(Undervalued)100.0%
P(20%+ Up)100.0%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.1%/yr

±12.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Centene Medicaid managed care; redetermination headwinds fading; state contract wins.

Bear Case

Medicaid acuity surprise risk; state budget pressures; CMS audit exposure.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

analysisMar 26
Conviction: unchanged
CNC Q4 2025 & 2026 Guidance: Repricing In Progress, Medicaid Revenue -B Headwind Persists

Q4 2025 trends consistent with expectations, slightly favorable in Marketplace. 2026 guidance: adj EPS >.00 at ~11x on stock; Medicaid revenue declining B from redetermination; HBR improving 60 bps o...

sec_10kMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
CNC FY2025 10-K: Medicaid Acuity & Marketplace Morbidity Crisis

Centene faces convergence of structural headwinds: Medicaid member acuity rising, Marketplace risk pool deteriorating, Medicare pricing inadequate, balance sheet impaired. Corrective pricing actions u...