COHR

Coherent Corp.

TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsNASDAQ

$361.47

-$15.81 (-4.37%)today

Conviction

8/ 10

Fair Value$287.50

Upside-20.46%

Signal0

Market Cap$57.1B

52W Range$50.81–$322.48

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 13, 2026, 12:13 AM7→8

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$61.39

Current Price$243.48

Upside / Down-74.8%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

38.2%/yr

±1.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Coherent is a key AI optical interconnect supplier. Data center bandwidth demand accelerating with AI buildout. Design wins with major hyperscalers. Tech score +4, above both MAs, momentum +0.145.

Bear Case

Customer concentration risk (major hyperscalers), cyclical component business, margin pressure from rapid scaling. High capex burden.

Research Feed

sec_10qApr 10

Conviction: unchanged

COHR FQ2 2026 10-Q: AI Datacenter Surging +34%, Preferred Overhang Gone

FQ2 2026: Revenue +17.5% to $1,685M. Datacenter +34% driven by AI/ZR+ demand. Series B preferred fully converted, simplifying cap structure. GM expanding to 37%. Thesis on track; raise conviction to 7...

analysisMar 6

Conviction: unchanged

COHR: Optical Backbone of AI — Deep Dive

COHR is the optical backbone of AI infrastructure — vertically integrated photonics leader capturing the 800G→1.6T transceiver upgrade cycle. NVIDIA $2B partnership (March 2026) is transformative. Bul...