Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
93.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
11.0%/yr
±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-1.3%/yr
±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Coinbase 10-K shows platform diversification beyond spot trading into Everything Exchange (equities, futures, prediction markets), staking infrastructure (.7B AUM), and stablecoin revenue. Regulatory ...