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0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.6%/yr
±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
18.7%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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10-K deep read complete. Filing marked read. Iran war catalyst raises WTI 28% to ~-96 post-filing, fundamentally improving 2026 earnings trajectory. Conviction raised 6→7.
Full 10-K read. FY2025 adj EPS .16 (vs .79 in 2024, -21% YoY) on lower realized prices (.01/BOE vs .83). Production grew 2.5% organically to 2,375 MBOED thanks to Marathon integration. Marathon synerg...
COP delivered 2,375 MBOED production (+20% YoY) driven by Marathon Oil acquisition. CFO of $19.8B, FCF $7.2B, returned $9.0B (46% of CFO) to shareholders. Marathon synergies hit $1B run-rate, $5B asse...