Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
32.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.7%/yr
±6.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
34.8%/yr
±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
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Costco Q2 FY2026: net sales +8%, membership fees +14%, OCF +44%, digital +22.6%. The membership moat is intact and the business is exceptional. However, at ~$972/share and ~50x forward P/E, Morningsta...
Costco delivered a strong Q1 FY2026: net sales +8%, membership fees +14%, EPS +11.4%, and operating cash flow surged 44% YoY to $4.69B. The business is firing on all cylinders — but at 45x forward P/E...