COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNASDAQ
$975.74
-$4.17 (-0.43%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$1,067.09
Upside+9.36%
Signal0
Market Cap$442.4B
52W Range$844.06–$1,067.08
Next EarningsMay 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$887.32
Current Price$983.86
Upside / Down-9.8%
P(Undervalued)32.6%
P(20%+ Up)9.8%
P(15%+ Down)40.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

32.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

8.7%/yr

±6.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

34.8%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.

Trailing P/E51.9x
Forward P/E44.4x
P/S1.5x
EPS (TTM)$19.19
Analyst Target$1,067.09
Analyst Upside9.4%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 20
Conviction: unchanged
COST Q2 FY2026: Membership Moat Intact — Exceptional Business, 50x Valuation Debate

Costco Q2 FY2026: net sales +8%, membership fees +14%, OCF +44%, digital +22.6%. The membership moat is intact and the business is exceptional. However, at ~$972/share and ~50x forward P/E, Morningsta...

sec_10qFeb 28
Conviction: unchanged
COST Q1 FY2026 10-Q: Exceptional Cash Flow, Premium Valuation Limits Upside

Costco delivered a strong Q1 FY2026: net sales +8%, membership fees +14%, EPS +11.4%, and operating cash flow surged 44% YoY to $4.69B. The business is firing on all cylinders — but at 45x forward P/E...