Corpay (formerly FLEETCOR): DCF P(above)=86.2%, FV=$380. B2B payments platform with strong pricing power, high switching costs, and multiple international expansion vectors. DCF strongly supports upside. Upgrade to 7: strong business quality + DCF support but need to see earnings momentum confirm thesis before going to 8.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
95.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
3.0%/yr
±3.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
5.6%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
FY2025 10-K: Revenue $4.53B +13.9% (10% organic). Corporate Payments surged 33.8% driven by Alpha (Oct 2025) and AvidXchange (May 2025). Adj EBITDA $2.57B at 56.6% margin (slight compression from M&A ...
FY2025 10-K shows strong recurring revenue growth (+13.9% reported, ~10% organic) with margin compression from Alpha deal. Proprietary networks in fuel/tolls/EV charging + cross-border FX business cre...
FY2025 10-K (period 12/31/2025, filed 2/27/2026). Revenue .53B (+13.9%, 10% organic). Corporate Payments surged 33.8% to .64B driven by Alpha Group (UK cross-border FX, .4B) acquired Oct 2025. Vehicle...
Recurring B2B payments platform with strong network moats and tech platform, but facing macro headwinds (FX, fuel prices), regulatory expansion costs, and intense competition. Recent M&A signals growt...