CPAY

Corpay, Inc.
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ
$361.80
+$14.93 (4.13%)today
Conviction
7/ 10
Fair Value$381.23
Upside+5.37%
Signal3.76
Market Cap$22.1B
52W Range$252.84–$361.99
Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:23 AM67conviction-rescore
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$388.41
Current Price$284.93
Upside / Down+36.3%
P(Undervalued)95.1%
P(20%+ Up)75.5%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

95.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

3.0%/yr

±3.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

5.6%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 14
Conviction: unchanged
CPAY FY2025 10-K: Alpha Integration Transforms Corporate Payments, Leverage Is the Gating Risk

FY2025 10-K: Revenue $4.53B +13.9% (10% organic). Corporate Payments surged 33.8% driven by Alpha (Oct 2025) and AvidXchange (May 2025). Adj EBITDA $2.57B at 56.6% margin (slight compression from M&A ...

sec_10kMar 13
Conviction: unchanged
CPAY FY2025 10-K: Digital Payments Moat Deepening Amid Alpha Integration, Leverage Concerns

FY2025 10-K shows strong recurring revenue growth (+13.9% reported, ~10% organic) with margin compression from Alpha deal. Proprietary networks in fuel/tolls/EV charging + cross-border FX business cre...

sec_10kMar 13
Conviction: unchanged
CPAY FY2025 10-K Deep Read: Alpha Acquisition Transforms Business, Leverage Elevated

FY2025 10-K (period 12/31/2025, filed 2/27/2026). Revenue .53B (+13.9%, 10% organic). Corporate Payments surged 33.8% to .64B driven by Alpha Group (UK cross-border FX, .4B) acquired Oct 2025. Vehicle...

sec_10kMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
CPAY FY2025 10-K: Recurring Payments, Macro Sensitivity & Regulatory Complexity

Recurring B2B payments platform with strong network moats and tech platform, but facing macro headwinds (FX, fuel prices), regulatory expansion costs, and intense competition. Recent M&A signals growt...