Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.9%/yr
±4.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.6%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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CPRT margins expanding faster than revenue growth, reflecting operational excellence and capital discipline. Revenue flatness is cyclical (hurricane comps) not secular. Fair-valued at current levels w...